Petro Dollar
Since the establishment of the petro-chemical industry by John D. Rockefeller with Standard Oil in 1870; the transportation and chemical sectors have seen a monopoly of a dozen corporations at most. This has led to even further polarisation of wealth since 1973 with the advent of the petro-dollar deal orchestrated between Henry Kissinger on behalf US and the House of Saud. It is now imperative to move towards alternative economies such as bio-economy and renewable electric economy as a way of salvation for non-OPEC nations.
Introduction
Before I put the case forward for a bio-economy the question some of you may be wondering is what is an economy and what economy are we living in now.
Simply put an economy is a system by which value or wealth flows through a region, country or the globe; often associated with the production and consumption of goods and services and the transfer of money.
Now with greater clarity I am happy to share with you that we live in a fossil fuel based economy for those of you that did not already know. This means that everything around us, every product and consumer good is invariably linked to fossil fuels; manufactured by the oil (petroleum) and gas (natural gas) industry as illustrated below.
As a chemical engineering student and later bio researcher I subconsciously felt as though there was something fundamentally wrong with our understanding of this sector because at a micro level we are told that the most energy intensive units are pumps and distillation columns and the process which has the greatest number of these are oil refineries. Therefore how is this one of the most profitable industry on the planet whilst bio processes which are much less energy intensive are deemed to be economically unfeasible. The respite to my curiosity came after my visit to Germany in 2013 on an invite to a workshop titled Project Management for Engineers by BASF where Michael Edmunds (same person as I mentioned in Fundamentals of Leadership article) a former employee of Sony shared with us a marketing and sales strategy whereby Sony would sell its Playstation consoles at a loss and would make their money through the sales of the games because if they were to sell the consoles at actual manufacturing cost then the consumers would not be able to afford them. Analogously I was to realise that the Playstation was essentially like an oil refinery and the games or the value chain in the case for the oil and gas industry is what makes it a multibillion ($137 billion in 2011, $20 per capita) dollar industry. The diagram below shows how the chemical industry with such as small supply chain of raw materials namely petroleum, natural gas, air and SO2 are able to produce a plethora of chemicals, intermediates and finished products and consumer goods catering for virtually every other sector.
But what’s the issue with a fossil based economy; hasn’t it served us well as a human species? Have we not been able to evolve at a rapid rate with technological advancements like those never witnessed before with robust housing and tall buildings, the ability to feed billions of people, quick transportation means, instant communication and better health and hygiene?
Despite all these advancements in the last century there are significant environmental and social welfare concerns that have come forth as a by-product of a fossil fuel economy with a quest for global governance for the US, see diagram from World Economic Forum below.
For the purposes of this article I will be discussing the issues mainly associated with global warming, fiscal imbalance and geo-political instability after a brief history of the oil and gas sector in the US.
Brief History
– 1851- James Young, a chemist, sets up the world’s first commercial plant to produce paraffin by the distillation of coal and oil shale in West Lothian, Scotland. This later became Scottish Oils which was bought out by Anglo Persian Oil Company (BP).
– 1859- Edwin Drake discovers oil by drilling a wellbore supported by an iron pipe in Titusville, Pennsylvania, USA. This well produced 25 barrels a day.
– 1866- Atlantic Petroleum is formed in Pennsylvania, one of two forerunners of Atlantic Richfield (ARCO), later bought by John D Rockefeller.
Global Warming
It was only after a summer school I attended organised for PhD students by Manchester Energy in 2014, did I realise the significance of the impact fossil fuels have had on our environment. Reality really hit home when a chap by the name of Professor Mike Bowman who had worked for BP for 30 years in Texas started his presentation by apologising on his personal behalf and on the behalf of all the researchers and scientists of his generation to our generation because they had let us down. He explained that whilst society was growing and expanding in all directions no one really challenged or questioned the long-term impact this would have on your globe from an environmental perspective. With the advent of the oil and gas industry coupled with the use of coal the accumulated carbon emissions have increased a staggering 9,000,000,000 folds, as shown below.
The professors’ proposed solution was to begin by transitioning from the use of coal and oil to gas which has a significantly lower carbon footprint albeit this would be a short term solution, as you would still have a considerable amount of emissions, it would curtail the exponential growth. He ended his presentation on a pessimistic note asking us to question whether our generation would be willing to downgrade civilisation, live a less extravagant lifestyle, for the sake of future generations perhaps without technology. It goes without saying this was a resounding no, so it begged the question what then is the solution. From my perspective the answer was and is simple which is to transition to a bio-economy by planting more trees (carbon stores) than we consume, however more on that later.
Chronic Fiscal Imbalance
Whenever monopolies are formed like the oil and gas industry and OPEC it ultimately leads to oppression of some form or another. I vividly recall the response of Professor Adisa Azapagic at an ICheme Chemical Engineering Conference that took place in 2014 when asked what the root problem for sustainability is, she replied simply “capitalism”, essentially the undisciplined pursuit for more profit in the private sector. When probed further as to what the solution to the global problem is she answered that she no longer believed that the scientists can solve it but rather that we must turn to the philosophers. Ever since hearing this response I more or less agree but I have not entirely reached that same conclusion because despite the scientific, technological, engineering and mathematical advancements we have witnessed with a fossil fuel based economy the reality is that approximately 90% of the global wealth is in the hands of 10% of the people with almost half the globe living on less than $2 per day. Moreover, roughly a fifth of the people lack a shelter and the skills to read and write whilst 13% do not have access to clean water and 1% are starving. Although philosophers can help us attain a deeper level of self-awareness and broader thinking I believe that the actual answer lies in social entrepreneurship.
Geo-Political Instability
Till now I have referred to the current economy as a fossil fuel based economy however being more specific it is a petro-dollar economy. In 1973 a deal was agreed between Saudi Arabia and the US that each barrel of oil must be sold in dollars. This meant that for every non-OPEC nation who desired petroleum they were compelled to trade with the US as they would need dollars in order to buy oil. This inevitably established a hegemony and has since aided US in furthering its imperialist ambitions.
With all its wealth the leaders of the US choose to spend a large amounts of their revenue on defence, more than the next eight countries combined as shown below. The ammunition is then supplied globally in particular to the Middle Eastern countries in exchange for oil. Whilst the MBA programmes and corporations teach their students and employees alike to think global and act local when it comes to oil and gas industry they think local and act global, this is the dichotomy.
Since its inception the US has been at war almost every year, in 2012 that was 237 times in 240 years. Meanwhile since world war II there has been a global onslaught by the US in efforts to achieve global domination including the recent destabilisation of the Middle East with the toppling of Iraq, Libya, Yemen and Syria. This has led to severe loss of life, extreme bloodshed and global instability.
Introducing a Bio-Economy
From my experience the best way to solve any problem including illnesses is to identify the root cause and address it. It is clear that the core issue over the last century or so has been the hegemony established by the US and OPEC using fossil fuels and dollars. Therefore, the solution must lie in introducing alternative economies for non-OPEC countries such as a bio-economy. Even the US being a non-OPEC member realises this and are establishing visions of economies post petro-dollar as illustrated below, courtesy of National Renewable Energy Laboratories.
A bio-economy is one where all the consumer goods and products are manufactured from chemicals which originate from biological sources including waste crops and oils. Biology is abundant and more readily accessible in comparison to the geology based petroleum, for large parts of the globe. This offers the opportunity to establish bio-refineries just as Renmatix have in the US whereby using three types of biomass feedstocks they are able to produce a plethora of intermediate chemicals and products.
Not only can a bio-economy help curtail the CO2 emissions, through intense plantation of crops and reforestation more jobs can be created in the agricultural sector. For instance the bio-economy is a $2-3 trillion industry in the EU and employs more than 22 million people, 9% of total employment in the EU. In the table below are estimates of the bio-economy potential on each continent based on one metric.
With increasing unemployment a bio-economy has the ability to create jobs worldwide locally, in particular jobs in the agricultural sector which currently account for 1/5th of the employment as shown below.
Conclusion
A bio-economy in my opinion is the solution in liberating the globe from currently a one way system favouring OPEC countries at the cost of non OPEC countries. In the short term I hope that non OPEC countries are able to establish bio-refineries and no longer need to import oil from OPEC countries whilst OPEC countries continue to use their oil to sustain their own economy. To solve the climate change issue for countries using coal for energy, as suggested by Prof. Mike Bowman, should be looking to switching to oil and those using oil should look to transition to gas; with an overall long term view to switching to biomass. Ultimately, I anticipate only one economy to prevail and that is one based on biology.
PS. For those that believe this is a utopian dream and a theoretical pie in the sky dream- devoid of reality, I choose to remain an optimist being a follower of the Islamic faith I believe in the following:
“Truth has (now) arrived, and Falsehood perished: for Falsehood is (by its nature) bound to perish.”
Al-Quran (17:81)
Furthermore, in a hadith (record of the traditions or sayings of the Prophet Muhammad)
Abu Huraira (RadhiAllahu ‘anhu) reported,
Allah’s Messenger (Sallallaahu ‘alaihi wasallam) as saying:
The Last hour will not come before wealth becomes abundant and overflowing, so much so that a man takes Zakat out of his property and cannot find anyone to accept it from him and till the land of arabia becomes meadows and rivers.
[ Sahih Muslim ]
NASA Sees Fields of Green Spring up in Saudi Arabia
(https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/saudi-green.html)
For me therefore a bio-economy is not a matter of if but rather when (how soon).